tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-55042975161461581802024-02-07T03:22:25.315-08:00Mohamad ChatahMohamad Chatah:
Political Commentary and More.....Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.comBlogger53125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-40953681699997554642013-09-05T23:26:00.002-07:002013-09-05T23:31:00.837-07:00Five Facts and a conclusion<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQCzuLERjB8WGIVBGKuKvb1uOhAjw_lbyAx9UoWTXg1Vg_zmjR6TMFMSfiyhVJKUVF1KaRHR1MpAsuCyj6PoeArDGcLbjUbbVMTvlPNLgZEqrthKVh5dG9rtcXEIOBKqFoOE_VBfJPxb0Q/s1600/Tet_offensive_in_Hue.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="-webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875); margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQCzuLERjB8WGIVBGKuKvb1uOhAjw_lbyAx9UoWTXg1Vg_zmjR6TMFMSfiyhVJKUVF1KaRHR1MpAsuCyj6PoeArDGcLbjUbbVMTvlPNLgZEqrthKVh5dG9rtcXEIOBKqFoOE_VBfJPxb0Q/s320/Tet_offensive_in_Hue.jpg" width="320"></a></div>
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Fact number 1: A united and peaceful Syria ruled by Assad is simply not possible anymore.It has been like that for some time.The status quo ante cannot be restored. Iran and Hezbollah realize this more than anyone else.<br>
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Fact number 2: The Assad regime is incapable of adapting to a powersharing arrangement as contemplated by the Geneva principles. The regime is brittle and fragile as it is brutal and ruthless. It can break but cannot bend. Assad knows it and Iran knows it.<br>
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<span style="-webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875);">Fact number 3: A free and democratic Syria would be a strategic disaster for Tehran. If given a choice, the Syrian people would be certain to sever their country's geopolitical alliance with the Islamic Republic and stop providing a geographic corridor to Iran's military arm in Lebanon.. </span><br>
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Fact number 4: Iran's second best alternative to the irretrievable status quo ante is simply a protracted war. This is now Iran's victory strategy. A bloody and chaotic Syrian theater will still be usable by Iran and Hezbollah more flexibly and efficiently than their western enemies. Remember the civil war in Lebanon?<br>
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Fact number 5: A protracted war in Syria will help terrorism flourish even more. Both the kind manipulated used by the regime to blackmail the west and the "authentic" strain that festers and spreads in open wounds, like opportunistic parasites.<br>
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Conclusion: If Iran's militant ideology and hegemonic ambitions <span style="-webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969);">and radical "Islamic" terrorism are the two strategic threats that need to be overcome, then the policy towards Syria should aim at bringing to a quick end both the devastating war and Assad's rule. Humanitarian considerations aside, any policy that is based on the premise that a protracted conflict in Syria is costless is misguided and dangerous. It is exactly what Iran wants and it will help the scourge of terrorism to thrive.</span><br>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-69400818331154873382013-08-31T07:30:00.002-07:002013-08-31T10:46:15.862-07:00Why and Why now?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div style="-webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); -webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.292969); -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; font-family: Helvetica;"><h2 style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"> </span><b><span style="font-size: large;"> </span></b></h2>
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Why is the US considering a strike on Syria at this time? And what is the purpose and extent of such a strike?</div>
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While the use of chemical weapons is the announced trigger for the use of force by the US, another factor is probably also at play.</div>
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The war in Syria reached a stalemate some time ago. Iran has long realized that it will be very difficult to restore the status quo ante in Syria. But for Tehran a transition to a democratic Syria would be disastrous, because it is inconceivable that the Syrian people will democratically and willingly maintain a strategic alliance with Iran or access to Hezbollah in Lebanon. So, Iran's strategy has been to shore up the regime in Damascus and keep the war going. A syria at war is Iran’s second best to an outright victory for the rebels. </div>
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On its part, the US is not ready to carry the risk and incur the cost of the massive intervention needed to force a regime change in Syria similar to that in Iraq. Obama was in fact elected because of his, and America's, anti-interventionist sentiment following the Iraq debacle. On the other hand, a disorderly downfall of Assad and a chaotic militia-infested Syria that might ensue would be disastrous. An agreement on a power sharing transition has proved elusive, and is likely to remain so. So what has been the US policy? Basically a mirror image of Iran’s: to shore up the Syrian rebels, not to topple Assad by force but to give the rebels an edge or at least keep a battlefield balance until such time that an acceptable deal is reached. </div>
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However this strategy appeared to be faltering in recent months. The flow of military support to the rebels was proving to be insufficient and ineffective and certainly not a match to the much better equipped regime forces. Assad's army (aided by Hezbollah and Iran’s RG) continued to press on both in Central Syria and the strategically critical Damascus suburbs. A victory by Assad, long-considered an impossibility, started to look like a conceivable nightmare. Thus the decision of the US to intervene militarily; to give a much needed nudge the embattled and outgunned rebels. It is not merely the use of chemical weapons.</div>
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Obama is under no public pressure to intervene in Syria. In fact, It is quite the opposite. Only a minority of Americans support military intervention by the US. A new poll shows that even if the use of CW is confirmed, most Americans would not support military action by the US.</div>
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According to this analysis, the timing and motivation behind the strike is not only due to the use of chemical weapons, despicable as that is. The purpose may well be to degrade the regime’s military capability enough to restore some balance to enable the rebels to continue the war; a boost that helps restore the military status quo ante prior to the regime's recent offensive. </div>
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This implies that the strike will be more than symbolic; substantive though less than decisive. It also implies that we should brace ourselves for a long and bloody war in Syria, and for potential blows below the belt against the West and GCC in the always-convenient Lebanese theater.</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-45772791861292843962013-08-25T00:46:00.001-07:002013-08-25T04:00:26.342-07:00Obama and the Syrian Spectacle<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on"><div dir="ltr" trbidi="on" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwk3q5xNUXlL6meFNlHWfZFoEcrsclfoiXl7M7aUlJnpSKj864XoUectbNp3w9wVnce_C75A6QuFlaKlI6JSmSmgEOBw8pU4whMaASXgBKW91y3SegsjofZ4AWrU14sbcfPuhqddiEInLc/s640/blogger-image--2086297024.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwk3q5xNUXlL6meFNlHWfZFoEcrsclfoiXl7M7aUlJnpSKj864XoUectbNp3w9wVnce_C75A6QuFlaKlI6JSmSmgEOBw8pU4whMaASXgBKW91y3SegsjofZ4AWrU14sbcfPuhqddiEInLc/s640/blogger-image--2086297024.jpg"></a></div><br></div><div dir="ltr" trbidi="on" style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: rgba(26, 26, 26, 0.296875); -webkit-composition-fill-color: rgba(175, 192, 227, 0.230469); -webkit-composition-frame-color: rgba(77, 128, 180, 0.230469); "><br></div>
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That the Syrian conflict is complex is obvious. This ancient land is now the focal point of a number of simultaneous historic transformations and conflicts, which blur visions and policy choices of many players, in Washington and elsewhere. Is it an overdue revolt by the people of Syria against a brutal dictatorship which has already sacrificed tens of of thousands of innocent lives just to stay in power? Is it a age old domestic feud with shifting communal and sectarian fault lines with a collection of extremist groups and violent cults committing horrible acts? Is it the main theater for the strategic regional and global face off between Iran and its allies on one side and their many enemies and adversaries on the other? Is it a conflict with serious implications for the evolution of political Islam and the global threat of jihadist terrorism? The answer is yes, yes, yes and yes. All these elements are there. And they are all interrelated, which makes the picture even more complicated. Anyone who's ever tried to solve four simultaneous polynomial equations can appreciate the predicament of analysts and policy advisors on Syria. But who said leadership is easy? It is mostly about making tough decisions. Making difficult choices. <br>
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Hegel once described a Greek tragedy as a conflict between two goods. Difficult to chose sides, when it is not a clear choice between right and wrong. Actually, many Syria watchers in Washington see the conflict in Syria today as one between two evils. Not only making it difficult to chose sides but making it even desirable to encourage the fight to go on; to fuel the conflict for as long as possible - presumably without burning one's fingers. Sounds like a sensible conclusion. But is it?<br>
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For one thing saving countless Syrian lives should not be a trivial matter to anyone. Especially to the foremost global power, which prides itself on anchoring its policies and global role in values and principles; "American" values and principles. But non-altruistic interests are at stake as well. It is simply too dangerous to let Syria percolate indefinitely thinking that it will remain a conflict between "evils" fighting it out in a distant land. An anarchic Syria can be a very serious threat to many other countries in the region and to the world at large. For decades, the Iran-led alliance has used Assad's Syria as a tightly controlled and reliable ally in their regional and international pursuits. A protracted war in a chaotic Syria is also a suitable theater for Assad's allies in their regional and international machinations. To be used in even more sinister ways. The Lebanese civil war of the 1980s is a good reminder.<br>
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This doesn't necessarily make Obama's policy choices easier. Syria may not be a simple fight between good and evil or a Hegelian tragedy of good against good. But neither is it a fight between two evils where good people can sit and enjoy the show.</div>
<br><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br></div>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-77137723199697423532013-03-03T00:51:00.002-08:002013-03-03T00:51:58.310-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://mtv.com.lb/Beirut_Al_Yawm/Dr_Mohamad_Chatah_02_Mar_2013">Interview on MTV (in Arabic) on March 2, 2013</a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-73699599969152706592013-02-27T13:47:00.002-08:002013-03-01T10:27:27.682-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Assad's Shifting Strategy</span></h2>
Where is Syria heading is a question many are pondering, as the world watches the recent crescendo of violence in the two year old rebellion.The answer may lie in what is emerging as the new strategy of the Assad regime.<br />
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In the early days of the revolution, the regime largely ignored the civilian uprising and acted as if it would dissipate on its own. The regime’s media tried to paint life in Syria as normal and there was denial of any refugee issue. However, as the peaceful revolt intensified and demonstrations continued to sweep Syrian cities, the regime shifted gears and gradually pushed the conflict into the military arena; an arena where most ordinary civilians prefer to stay away and where the regime clearly has an advantage.<br />
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Realizing that, the opposition initially resisted the militarization of the conflict; but eventually, and inevitably, many people, including ordinary civilians, had to take up arms to defend themselves against the regime’s ruthlessness. Basically, in this second phase the regime’s strategy was to win militarily against a, now armed, rebellion.<br />
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But the regime's calculations were wrong. Despite their military disadvantage the rebels put up a good fight. They continued to press on. Over time, it became clear that the best the regime could achieve was a stalemate. After tens of thousands of casualties and massive destruction almost everyone became convinced that neither side would be able to defeat the other. Obviously, that was not an acceptable scenario for the regime. Thus the new turn in Assad's strategy<br />
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Assad's current goal has changed from the impossible goal of defeating the opposition to pressuring the west to come to the negotiation table on Assad's terms. How can he do that? One way is to make the war so outrageous and the spectacle so intolerable that the west– given that there is no stomach on either side of the Atlantic for any for direct military involvement –would be pushed into negotiating Assad, as the only other way of stopping the escalating carnage and destruction. Scud missiles destroying whole neighborhoods became a political weapon as much as a military one in the regime’s strategy.<br />
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If this reading of the regime's current strategy is correct we are likely to see more deliberate use of horrifying violence in the days and weeks ahead. Many, especially in neighboring Lebanon, are wondering whether this will include a widening of the conflict beyond Syria’s border in order to leverage the pressure on the west into submissive negotiations with Assad. They are also asking whether the west will counter by altering its own strategy and finally agreeing to provide the rebels with the kind of weapons which can tilt the balance in their favor, and force Assad into accepting an exit deal. It may not be long before we know the answer.</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-34831694550117855422013-02-25T20:13:00.000-08:002013-02-25T20:13:20.657-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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TV interview (in Arabic) on February 24, 2013<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-73455050089623038362013-02-21T14:07:00.003-08:002013-02-21T14:07:37.362-08:00February 15 Interview on Future TV (in arabic) <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-39677875149791308832013-02-19T22:49:00.003-08:002013-02-21T21:07:11.874-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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A Ride Across the River</h2>
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<span style="text-align: left;">Good to be back after a a few weeks hiatus. Observing current developments</span><span style="text-align: left;"> from Beirut, there are many things to talk about. Mostly bad. Some are awful, such as yesterday's reckless vote by the joint committees of the Lebanese parliament in favor of an election law that pushes the country further down the slippery slope of sectarian disintegration. </span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="text-align: left;">The Speaker's decision to push for a quick vote on the draft law surprised some of the uneasy supporters of the draft law in parliament. It shouldn't have:</span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A scorpion once wanted to cross the river. Unable to swim, he asked a frog to carry him
over to the opposite bank. “No way!”
said the frog. “You’ll sting me and I’ll drown!” “Of course I won’t sting you,” said the
scorpion. “I’d end up drowning myself too.” So the reluctant frog let the scorpion climb
onto his back and started to swim across the river. Half-way across the scorpion stung him. “Whoa!” cried the frog. “You said you wouldn't sting me! Now we’ll both drown. What did you do that for?” And the scorpion replied: “But that’s my nature.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<div style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-50142311863035464642012-12-30T06:02:00.003-08:002012-12-30T06:02:59.376-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFDIZb-fjzfKB_Co74wjGZuldsQXxaG5CL7uqGx0c2KB4BtggIOyIb9-eExnPrrMALKMqwzaF2ZhxRm4DX3r_pevqKU9QOGWhj6zVF9SP7UQdW0Upqr2BXL7wGOcg8qJkj2w4KSNg05AqX/s1600/PRGET-8094-634924593881002620.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFDIZb-fjzfKB_Co74wjGZuldsQXxaG5CL7uqGx0c2KB4BtggIOyIb9-eExnPrrMALKMqwzaF2ZhxRm4DX3r_pevqKU9QOGWhj6zVF9SP7UQdW0Upqr2BXL7wGOcg8qJkj2w4KSNg05AqX/s200/PRGET-8094-634924593881002620.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=zRC7NBeh2fE">Interview on LBC- Nharkom Saeed (Arabic) December 30, 2012</a></div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-12568241922823113502012-12-24T13:28:00.001-08:002012-12-24T13:28:32.584-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6bruQ-uQWMfQFarRQYAJWmsDX8RkVZkoDNvxQu_v1aIlgrISH6dBCc2UE5yMm7aNGTV7c3MGes_tzgFHnNMTf1gLfnEkL0N41gxuhMSB5rqLZk56OTY-1C7bzNeETYol3KpmSHk7kfIdv/s1600/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6bruQ-uQWMfQFarRQYAJWmsDX8RkVZkoDNvxQu_v1aIlgrISH6dBCc2UE5yMm7aNGTV7c3MGes_tzgFHnNMTf1gLfnEkL0N41gxuhMSB5rqLZk56OTY-1C7bzNeETYol3KpmSHk7kfIdv/s200/images.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
Less than an endorsement</h2>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The transition drama continues to unfold in Egypt, and the rest
of the world is watching with keen interest. It should be. The implications are important
for the region and for the broader Arab and Islamic worlds. The recent referendum
on the controversial draft resolution showed close to 64 percent in favor and
36 percent against. Putting aside the serious problems that many of us have
with the draft constitution, on the face of it 64 percent sounds like a
respectable endorsement by the people of Egypt.But is it really?</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br />
<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A constitution is the fundamental set of values, objectives,
principles, and rules by which a society agrees to manage its affairs as one state.
It follows that establishing a new constitution or amending an existing one
should be a consensual process and not a decision taken by a simple majority. Indeed,
in most cases adopting a new constitution or a constitutional amendment require
a two thirds or even a three quarters majority. Also, a quorum or a minimum
participation ratio is often required. In the Egyptian referendum a simple
majority of the votes cast was the only requirement. Given the mere 32 percent voter
turnout, the 64 percent in favor actually translate into only about 20 percent
of eligible voters. This can hardly be called consensual. What this suggests is
that the draft constitution should have been disseminated, explained and
debated more widely and for a longer period before being put to a vote. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
In my view President Morsi and his Islamic party have committed
an early<i> faux pas</i>. The Egyptian people are holding them accountable, which is
the real source of our optimism about Egypt’s future. Let us hope the
Brotherhood finds a way to remedy the mess
they have created. They will be the biggest losers if they don’t.</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-34030309263502099312012-12-23T13:34:00.000-08:002012-12-23T13:34:05.473-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnfFLfvEzjr-xgIn0pJTRCsmhlQ8c-X6HwpayfOpHODHoUNiZk0DbmGzcfQy-OwsgsmEAnOU1AIEvziKK666_lSZO1wJQ0ZBJVRFZ65_vAwcjtFaPwlEWsIw_AWJbYoGzG9xec22b1VgSC/s1600/together.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="92" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnfFLfvEzjr-xgIn0pJTRCsmhlQ8c-X6HwpayfOpHODHoUNiZk0DbmGzcfQy-OwsgsmEAnOU1AIEvziKK666_lSZO1wJQ0ZBJVRFZ65_vAwcjtFaPwlEWsIw_AWJbYoGzG9xec22b1VgSC/s320/together.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<b>Déjà vu</b></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="text-align: left;">As soon as he assumed office as prime minister almost
exactly twenty years ago, Rafic Hariri was made to understand the rules of the
game in Lebanon. The Hafez Assad rules, that is. And the first and foremost rule
was that no one can question Syrian authority in Lebanon. </span><span style="text-align: left;">Also that the Lebanese government (and people) </span><span style="text-align: left;">had no business interfering in such issues as:
Lebanon’s national security, matters relating to Lebanon’s own </span><span style="text-align: left;">army (including
its geographical deployment and officer promotions), Lebanon’s policy on the
Arab Israeli conflict,</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><span style="text-align: left;">the Palestinian
militias in Lebanon, as well as all other security and foreign policy matters
that really mattered. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="text-align: left;"></span></div>
<a name='more'></a><br /><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="text-align: left;">Any ambiguity in these rules was made clear when Hariri’s
decision to deploy the Lebanese army in South Lebanon soon after becoming Prime
Minister was quickly and unceremoniously reversed by Damascus. The terms of the
deal were clear. In fact, it wasn’t a deal at all; it was simply an offer that
could not be refused.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
Over time, hopes about Lebanon being free again became a
distant dream. Hariri recognized that Assad’s hegemony over his country had
become almost impossible to shake off; hegemony that was – alas - blessed or at
least tolerated by almost all regional and international powers. Over time, most Lebanese officials, politicians
and ordinary people acquiesced and adapted, however reluctantly, to the Pax
Syriana as many had termed it.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
Hariri tried to play by rules set by the Syrians and focused
on reconstruction, public investment and economic revival, which after all had been
his primary agenda to begin with. For several years he navigated the narrow
bounds permitted by the Syrians very carefully. He pushed his economic vision
for Lebanon in every way possible. And there were some achievements, but far far
short of what would have been possible. Deep down Hariri became increasingly convinced
that his dream of a vibrant, prosperous and secure Lebanon, can never be reached under the heavy-handed control
and abuse by Syrian intelligence and its local affiliates, and as long as Lebanon continued to be used by
the Syrian regime as a convenient theater to leverage its regional ambitions
and agendas. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
After Israel’s withdrawal from South Lebanon in the spring
of 2000, and Bashar Assad’s insistence on keeping the liberated south as a perpetual
battlefield, Hariri became totally convinced that Lebanon had no
future unless the heavy handed grip of the Assad regime was loosened. He rebelled against the rules set by Damascus
and began to join forces with other Lebanese groups who were also unhappy with the status quo, until his assassination in February 0f 2005. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
Why recall this history now? Listening to Mr. Nasrallah’s speech last week we heard
echoes of the Assad rules being offered again. He called
on the March 14 coalition to stop whining about “Hizbollah’s weapons”. People
are tired of hearing the same broken record over and over again, he said. In
effect he was calling on the March 14 crowd
to focus on social and economic problems instead of its futile attempt of challenging
Hizbollah’s hegemony over Lebanon’s
security, its self-assumed right to use armed pressure to intimidate
other Lebanese who disagreed, to forge strategic alliances abroad, and to keep Lebanon as a
convenient theater for their regional allies. It sounded like the Assad rules all over again.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">
Rafic Hariri was right then and Saad Hariri is right today. What Mr. Nasrallah fails to recognize is that
Hizbollah’s independent military status and its hegemony over the
country are major reasons for Lebanon’s vulnerability, the erosion of state authority,
the lack of productive investments and quality jobs, and the faltering economy.
I am afraid Mr. Nasrallah will continue
to hear March 14’s broken record for as long as it takes to set things
straight.</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-51054648934067492542012-12-16T07:10:00.001-08:002012-12-16T21:49:28.318-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH2vYg_g0whKeeixFLnu7LblV8KElfXvWYpdhFSim-ETIrB8mUZImJmDJpuPG8caiVxzrwbYbWQL0QXCGRTrhO_4ozZNP368qHuxSsoD0mMW6zNn4SiCk79xEJ2QbCgeuHLgjHAJ6Sm-Tb/s1600/mikati.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="137" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH2vYg_g0whKeeixFLnu7LblV8KElfXvWYpdhFSim-ETIrB8mUZImJmDJpuPG8caiVxzrwbYbWQL0QXCGRTrhO_4ozZNP368qHuxSsoD0mMW6zNn4SiCk79xEJ2QbCgeuHLgjHAJ6Sm-Tb/s200/mikati.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<b>No, it is not
enough!</b></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="text-align: left;">After being mum for days following Syria’s issuance of
arrest warrants against former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Deputy Okab Sakr,
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati finally made a passing comment on the
issue this weekend. He described the Syrian action as “completely political”
and “void of any legal merit or value".</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;">
<span style="text-align: left;"></span></div>
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a name='more'></a><br /></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
Anyone who had followed this matter with even a semblance of
objectivity had already reached that same conclusion after Mr. Sakr’s dramatic presentation
to the press a week earlier. There were many voices from March 14 who were
nevertheless critical of Mr. Mikati for not coming out earlier. After all, in
politics - as in comedy - timing is everything. Others, however, had a more lenient
“better late than never” attitude. <br />
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
What has escaped most people, however, is that Mr. Mikati’s
belated comments didn’t really say anything beside observing an obvious fact –
that the Syrian arrest warrants were purely political. He did not take any
position on the political move itself. He didn't condemn it, or deplore it, or criticize
it or otherwise characterize it in any way. If the Syrian regime actually used
a false legal pretext against a former prime minister, as it obviously did, then
a sitting Prime Minister should have the courage to criticize that action. If
and when Mr. Mikati supplements his clinical comment and say something clearer
and more meaningful on this matter, then
I will be ready to join the “better late than never” crowd.</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-31457664914447896532012-12-15T00:22:00.000-08:002012-12-16T04:17:57.456-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkQkdDf6Aezy39C_3fDJASY1KU0tQL0hd28WrR9l7HJWXbKjZUflYJgc6n6hsTa-tppJMRm8Uxx80lR4y9b17SKaj6mEMsFG1RnE7CLoMyHPHBlHJYT0gJYdczVzWwa92l7viHDUFD4tLN/s1600/morsi.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkQkdDf6Aezy39C_3fDJASY1KU0tQL0hd28WrR9l7HJWXbKjZUflYJgc6n6hsTa-tppJMRm8Uxx80lR4y9b17SKaj6mEMsFG1RnE7CLoMyHPHBlHJYT0gJYdczVzWwa92l7viHDUFD4tLN/s200/morsi.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
<span style="font-size: large;">Morsi’s Flawed Referendum</span></h2>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="text-align: left;">A sharply divided Egypt begins voting today on a
controversial draft constitution. In principle, this important way station
in the country’s democratic journey is an occasion for Egyptians to celebrate.
Casting a vote in a free election or a popular referendum are clear manifestations
of the democratic process. Another reason to be optimistic about Egypt is the way the
Egyptian people reacted to what seemed to many as an attempt by President Morsi
and his Muslim Brotherhood party to tighten their grip on the country through
the President’s constitutional declaration.</span><br />
<span style="text-align: left;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
</div>
<a name='more'></a><div style="text-align: justify;">
Whether Mr. Morsi’s miss-step was part
of a sinister power grabbing plot by the Brotherhood or a benign but badly communicated move, the
fact remains that millions of Egyptians have provided a clear indication to the
world that the old days of acquiescence are over and that the Egyptian people
will not allow dictatorial or authoritarian practices even when covered by the
cloak of Islam.</div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
But what about the contents of the proposed constitution? It
is of course for Egyptians to say, but if I were an Egyptian I would vote
against it. Declaring Islam as the Egyptian state’s religion sends a terrible
message to the millions of Egyptian Christians that the state is not equally theirs.
States should not have religions. People do. The fact that this reference to
state religion is not new and is included in some other country’s constitutions
as well is not a reason to accept it;
especially now that Egypt has a chance to write a new national charter that
belongs to the 21<sup>st</sup> century. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Even more problematic is Article 219, which leaves room for fundamentalist
legislation and policies in the future. Millions of Muslims and
Christians have expressed grave concerns about this article. If that is not the
intention of the drafters as they claim then the wording of this article should
be changed to allay those concerns. </div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
What I find most problematic, however, is not the draft
constitution itself but the fact that it is being put to a referendum on a
simple majority basis. A constitution is the ultimate national contract that
sets the principles by which a society is governed, laws are passed and
policies implemented. It should command the support of a large majority of the
population. This is also true about amendments to constitutions, where
majorities of two thirds or even three quarters are commonly required. It is
rather surprising that this point is not being raised strongly enough by the
opposition. A constitution that
is opposed by a large minority of the population is a flawed constitution-in any country.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
Had I been in Morsi’s shoes I would have issued a
constitutional declaration making the majority requirement in the referendum at
least two thirds (and maybe even three quarters) of voters.</div>
</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-41352953102712517422012-12-10T22:55:00.003-08:002012-12-10T22:57:40.445-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: large;">The Brotherhood's Choice</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><i><br /></i></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><i>Last June I commented on the Islamic Brotherhood's election victory in Egypt. The current events in Cairo bring back those very same thoughts. I am still as optimistic about Egypt's transformation as I was then. Here is an excerpt from</i></span><i style="font-size: large;"> last June's posting.</i></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;"></span><br />
<a name='more'></a><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;">.......Admittedly, there are many who are skeptical about this latter evolution <i>(of political Islam).</i> They consider that the new rhetoric of Islamic parties (including Morsi’s) is intentionally deceptive, and that soon we will see the “real face” of the brotherhood and of political Islam, and it will not be a pretty sight. Maybe so. We shall see. But that will not in itself decide the future of Egypt. I firmly believe that Egypt will not be subjugated again to accept dictatorial governments under any banner, including an Islamic one. The Egyptian people will not acquiesce to that.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: medium;">There is no turning back. The collective mind of Egyptians has become conscious and will not be robbed of its will again. It is Political Islam which will undergo an adaptive evolution. Sure there will be fringe elements which may veer towards even more extremism and away from the principles and values of the mainstream. Such elements exist in all societies, even the most enlightened and democratic ones. But it is the mainstream that matters much more. And I read in Morsi’s speech the same positive evolutionary signs coming out from many mainstream Islamic parties and authorities over the past year, in Egypt and elsewhere. These are good signs. Good for them, first and foremost. Because if they don’t adapt to the values and principles and goals of the large majority of Muslims (and non Muslims) these parties will shrink and even perish, much like endangered species which fail to adapt. Democratic governance in Muslim societies will win. Whether Islamic parties do or not, is much less important.</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-4867969362816183362012-12-10T11:09:00.003-08:002012-12-11T13:29:51.610-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-size: x-large;">Wrong Lessons from Gaza </span></h2>
The Palestinian people and the Palestinian authority deserve to celebrate the hard won recognition of their statehood by a large majority of the world, overruling a shameful and politically nonsensical negative vote by the US. This comes only weeks after the newest Gaza battle, which ended with both Hamas and the Israeli government both claiming victory. Those claims are misplaced; and so are the lessons which the forces of "Resistance" in the region seem to be drawing from the eight-day Israeli aerial assault and the rockets lobbed on Israeli towns.<br />
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On the Palestinian side, the euphoria about the ability of Gaza Palestinians to reach all the way to Tel Aviv and force the beach boardwalk strollers briefly into bomb shelters gave many people on this side of the conflict a sense of victory. Hizbollah saw it as a vindication of their strategy against the Israeli enemy. The problem is that facts tell a different story. Not only were about one hundred and fifty Palestinian killed versus five Israelis, and the destruction was many folds greater on the Palestinian side, but the Palestinians are hardly closer to achieving their legitimate national aspirations. Two simple charts that show the crescendo of rockets fired from Gaza since Israel's withdrawal in 2005, and the number of Israeli fatalities they caused (about sixty deaths altogether ) say a lot. Needless to say, the number of Palestinians killed during the same period is in the thousands. Will we soon see the beginning of a third cycle of escalation? Time will tell<br />
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On the Israeli side the lesson the Likud and their like-minded allies seem to have drawn from the Gaza battle is that the iron dome, together with the west bank separation wall, are a good alternative to a peace settlement with the Palestinians and with the Arab and Islamic worlds. Perhaps a tempting conclusion with so many Arabs and Muslims busy with their own domestic preoccupations. Netanyahu's decision to build thousands of settler housing units in the heart of the would be Palestinian State shows a misguided and shortsighted state of mind. The Arabs and Muslims, who are indeed currently undergoing a historic transformation towards more democracy and better governance will be even more determined (and able) to stand up to Israeli extremists. Trying to deprive Palestinian Arabs who already constitute almost half of the people living in historic Palestine of an independent state in their own homeland is unjust and will eventually fail.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-84215949484968868762012-12-09T23:15:00.001-08:002012-12-09T23:15:29.642-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<b>A Panel Discussion on the Future of Christians in the Middle East</b></h4>
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<b>(from Almoustaqbal daily in Arabic) </b></h4>
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<span style="text-align: -webkit-right;"> نظمت "دار سائر المشرق" يوم السبت الماضي ندوة حول كتاب "بقاء المسيحيين في الشرق خيار اسلامي" لانطوان سعد شارك فيها الوزير السابق الدكتور محمد شطح، الوزير السابق كريم بقرادوني، السفير السابق د.عبد الله بو حبيب وأدارها ا</span><span style="text-align: -webkit-right;">لاباتي بولس نعمان في </span><span style="text-align: -webkit-right;">حضور حشد من المهتمين والمثقفين.</span></div>
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<span style="text-align: -webkit-right;">ا</span></div>
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<span dir="rtl" style="color: black; margin: 10px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">نعمان: لنضع يداً بيد المجددين في الشرق</span></b></span></div>
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<span dir="rtl" style="color: black; margin: 10px;">استهل الأباتي نعمان كلمته بالتمني لو تم طرح موضوع "بقاء المسيحيين في الشرق" من زاوية اشمل فالقضية بالنسبة له لا تعالج من زاويتها الدينية فحسب، والاديان في تطورها في انتشارها او انحسارها لا تتعلق بارادة الانسان وحده، بل هي ايضاً من عمل الروح ومن عيش العقيدة بعمقها ولا تقاس بالعدد وحده (...)<br />واعتبر الاباتي نعمان أن مشكلة هذه البلدان انها غير قادرة بقواها الذاتية على تطوير بنياتها الروحية والاجتماعية قبل ان تحل مشاكلها الاساسية التي اكتفي بتعدادها وهي: الانظمة الدكتاتورية والعسكرية والدينية، الامية والبطالة، التخلف الاقتصادي والاجتماعي، التنامي الديموغرافي المدمر للتوازن الانساني، تنامي الفقر بالرغم من الثروات الطائلة، غياب الفكر الديني الاصلاحي الحقيقي والاستعاضة عنه بالتعصب، تهميش دور المرأة وحقوقها وهي اكثر من نصف المجتمع يضاف اليها سبب خارجي هو السياسات الخارجية المنحازة لاسرائيل التي ترفض اي حل عادل للقضية الفلسطينية وهي القضية المركزية لاكثر مشاكل الشرق العربي، مشيرا الى أن هذه الاسباب كانت اساس آفتين متآكلتين هما: هجرة الشعوب والنخب الفكرية والاجتماعية المسيحية بنوع خاص الى بلدان الغرب الديمقراطي حيث تتوفر لهم فرص العمل والنجاح وتنامي الحركات الاصولية والراديكالية الدينية او المحتمية بالدين.<br />وقال: وها هم ابناء الشرق ينتفضون من اجل حريتهم وكرامتهم الانسانية ليس بفضل وجودنا بل بفعل الروح العامل في هذا الشرق وفي الكون لنحسن قراءات علامات الازمنة، ولنواكب ابناء الشرق بصرخة رؤيوية تؤكد على قيمة الانسان وتعلن قيامته في الشرق وليس ادل على ذلك من مثل ثالث وثيقة للازهر الكريم عن الحريات التي اصدرها في العاشر من ك2 </span></div>
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2012 ومن الاحترام الذي يبديه السيد السيستاني نحو الاخرين وقوانينهم... ورغبته في الوصول الى الحقيقة.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">شطح: لبنان هبة المسيحيين إلى العالم العربي</span></b></div>
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تطرق الى الأحداث التاريخية التي عصفت بمصر وسوريا والعراق منذ بدايات النصف الثاني من القرن العشرين وحتى الامس القريب؟ حيث لم تطل فترة ما بعد الاستقلال والتطور الاجتماعي الديمقراطي الطبيعي الا لبضع سنوات فسرعان ما أحكمت سلطة الامن والسلاح قبضتها فاحتكرت الاقتصاد والعلم والمعرفة والاعلام..... هذه العوامل هي بالدرجة الاولى ما ادت بالنتيجة ومن الناحية الفعلية الى تراجع وضع المسيحيين في تلك المجتمعات ولو كان بشكل غير مقصود. ..... والواقع ان الاسلام لم يكن لاعبا مهما" على الاطلاق في تلك الفترة اللهم ان الغاء الحياة السياسية جعل من الاسلام (الغير القابل للالغاء بالطبع) ومن الاسلام السياسي منافساً وحيداً وبديلاً حاضراً عند لحظة رفع الغطاء القمعي للنظام.</div>
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<span dir="rtl" style="color: black; margin: 10px;">وعبر شطح انطلاقا مما يحدث من حولنا عن قناعة تامة بان عملية التحول التي تشهدها المنطقة العربية هي في جوهرها ومحصلتها تطور طبيعي رغم الضوضاء المرتفعة والغبار الكثيف التي تكتنفها. تطور نحو المبادئ والمفاهيم الانسانية والسياسية المشتركة التي وصلت اليها المجتمعات الاخرى على اختلاف اعراقها وثقافاتها ودياناتها. ليس هناك استثناء عربي أو استثناء أسلامي..... وما يجري في مصر هذه الايام يؤكد ان تحولا" اساسيا" قد حصل فعلا" رغم ان مصر وغيرها لا زالت في فترة المخاض. فلن يستطيع أي كان بعد اليوم ان يستأثر بالسلطة والقرار بغض النظر عن الاسباب والمبررات ولو كانت تحت راية اسلامية.... وقال: يسألون: من سيحكم مصر؟ ومن سيحكم سوريا؟ والاجابة بسيطة: ِشعب مصر وشعب سوريا. وهذه هي شبكة الامان الحقيقية للمسلمين والمسيحيين على السواء. ...<br />وفي ما خص لبنان، اعتبر شطح أنه يتفق مع الكاتب على أن المقاربة لا بد وأن تكون مختلفة. فمسيحيو لبنان ليسوا اقلية صغيرة. هم طبعا" اساس وجود لبنان ككيان مستقل. حتى ان البعض وصفه بانه كما مصر هي هبة النيل فلبنان هو هبة المسيحيين الى العالم العربي.... طبعا" هناك حقيقة أن معظم المسيحيين اليوم ولاسباب يبينها الكاتب بالتفصيل يشعرون بالغبن وايضا" بالخوف على لبنان من ان لا يعود لبنان الذي يعرفون او يريدون ولو بقي ارضا" لا علما" وحدودا". ومن البديهي ان شعور اي طائفة بالغبن هي مشكلة للجميع وليس للطائفة التي تشعر بالغبن فقط. والمعالجة المطلوبة تصبح بالتالي مسؤولية وطنية...<br />وقال: لقد كنت ولا ازال ومع اغلبية اللبنانيين على قناعة تامة بان لبنان اكبر بكثير من مجموع اجزائه. والمطلوب من جميع الذين يؤمنون بذلك ان يعملوا على بلورة اهداف وركائز واضحة لتدعيم الهيكل اللبناني وتعزيزه بعد ان وصل الى درجة خطيرة من الهشاشة والتفكك ... الاهداف كبيرة ولكن الطريق ليست مجهولة المعالم. وهي بالاساس الطريق التي رسمها دستور الطائف . ولست ممن يعتبر ان دستور الطائف مقدسا" الا انه فعلا" يحوي العناصر الاساسية لمعالجة المخاوف الطائفية ولوقف التأكل في منعة الدولة وسلطتها وادارتها للشأن العام، وهي: الضمانات المشروعة للطوائف عبر مجلس شيوخ، اللامركزية الادارية الموسعة، مبدأ الحياد والتحييد، مرجعية الدولة وسلطتها الحصرية في الامن والسلاح كمبدأ يتلازم مع مبدأ سيادة الدولة ووحدتها.<br />وختم بالقول: إن هذه العناصر الاساسية هي برأيي المدخل الحقيقي لمقاربة الموضوع. ليس فقط موضوع الغبن والخوف على لبنان لدى المسيحيين ولكن ايضا" لدى اللبنانيين بشكل عام. هل سيتمكن اللبنانيون المؤمنون بهذا النوع من الطروحات من بلورتها الى برنامج عملي واضح تلتف حوله قاعدة شعبية واسعة من مختلف الطوائف تجعله قابلاً للتحقق؟ للاسف لا يبدو ذلك </span></div>
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على المدى القريب ولكن يبقى هذا هو الطريق والهدف</div>
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<span dir="rtl" style="color: black; margin: 10px;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">بوحبيب</span></b><br />اعتبر بوحبيب مستهل كلمته أن اشكالية المساواة التامة والمحافظة على الوجود والدور الفاعل في هذا الشرق، كانت دائما هاجسا وتحديا أمام المسيحيين المشرقيين في هذه المنطقة.<br />واشار الى أن دور المسيحيين تاريخياً ومنذ العصور الإسلامية الأولى شكّل قيمة مضافة لمجتمعات المنطقة، في لعب دور متميز في التفاعل الحضاري الإيجابي الذي أثرى الحضارة العربية الإسلامية، كما جاء في كتاب أنطوان سعد.<br />وقال بوحبيب: إن التحديات والمصاعب الماثلة في أفق هذه المنطقة، ترخي بظلالها على وضع المسيحيين المشرقيين فالمجتمعات العربية الإسلامية عموماً تشهد موجة لإنتشار الفكر المتشدد الذي يعبر عن معضلة الصدام مع الحداثة وأزمة الهوية ضد ما تعتبره فئات في هذه المجتمعات، "تغريباً" وإستهدافاً لحضاراتها، ما يقود الى التطلع الى الماضي الإسلامي المجيد على أنّ نظمه وأساليبه وأحكامه هي السبيل الى النهضة الإسلامية المنشودة.<br />وأضاف: إنطلاقاً من هذا المشهد، فإن المسيحيين ما زالوا متمسكين بأهدافهم الأساسية، وهي الحفاظ على وجودهم وعلى دور فاعل في الحياة العامة تحت مبدأ المساواة في المواطنية... وفي عصرنا الحالي، ترتدي المحافظة على الوجود المسيحي في المشرق العربي أهمية كبيرة لإتصالها بقضية التنوع والتعددية في العالم أجمع.<br /><b><span style="font-size: large;"><br /></span></b></span></div>
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<span dir="rtl" style="color: black; margin: 10px;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">بقرادوني</span></b><br />وفي الختام تكلم الوزير السابق كريم بقرادوني بايجاز عن " كتاب "بقاء المسيحيين في الشرق خيار اسلامي" واعتبره كتابا قيما، وبعدما أبدى موافقته على معظم ما جاء فيه، سجل تحفظه على فكرة اعادة الاعتبار للتجربة العثمانية التي أوردها الكاتب في معرض مؤلفه، كما ابدى ملاحظة على عنوان الكتاب معتبرا أن بقاء المسيحيين في الشرق هو خيار مسيحي.</span></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-10646803838757320082012-11-25T23:25:00.001-08:002012-11-25T23:28:33.752-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://www.aljadeed.tv/MenuAr/news/DetailNews/AlHadathDetailNews.html?id=41459" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="150" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgQbLmFBe_nQxNUJa8dTNZz7XNi_vz7qBx9pW5Xs7OIRum45jcbkT65byw6Ohyphenhyphenc3MJJfMb5OzZMQNFnostLEianUKaqN2yd5dn0eaTRkg2NjD4gr60gzr_rBji3zfeExsWHszgGR3j_gnZm/s200/me.jpg" tea="true" width="200" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.aljadeed.tv/MenuAr/news/DetailNews/AlHadathDetailNews.html?id=41459" target="_blank"><span style="color: blue;">Aljadeed Television Interview (in Arabic) on November 24, 2012</span></a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-64031537893728928622012-11-25T23:09:00.002-08:002012-11-25T23:52:15.734-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq_S9ZmfiVe7ctyb5QwVCVTe9TLY_iNY-B6IKnZJKudirCQ1hNwJ9ovqzt50-DGRqk_sUJ0MnhblLjTJ0WS22umSNBnDJL8jrJ9n2fu-UVYukIB1wO1BmrSV_SMIMh3MbJePFfYSg7tbh5/s1600/palestine.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="154" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjq_S9ZmfiVe7ctyb5QwVCVTe9TLY_iNY-B6IKnZJKudirCQ1hNwJ9ovqzt50-DGRqk_sUJ0MnhblLjTJ0WS22umSNBnDJL8jrJ9n2fu-UVYukIB1wO1BmrSV_SMIMh3MbJePFfYSg7tbh5/s200/palestine.jpg" tea="true" width="200" /></a></div>
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The State of Palestine at the United Nations</h2>
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In the coming days the United Nations General Assembly (GA) will vote on Palestine’s bid to become an observer state. This will circumvent a guaranteed US veto at the Security Council, which is the body that decides on full-fledged membership at the UN. While the US has already indicated that it would vote against a Palestinian state at the General Assembly it will be joined by only a minority of the 193 members. The latest tally I have seen (which may not be up to date) shows that only 27 countries plan to vote against, while 115 (more than half) plan to vote in favor. 51 are still undecided and are being lobbied heavily by both sides. <br />
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So, it looks like the international community will finally do what is right, both morally and politically. A yes vote will be a small token of justice for the Palestinian people and for their legitimate national aspirations. A victory for the Palestinian bid will also increase the chances, however marginally, of making progress towards a peaceful settlement on the basis of two independent states in historical Palestine. It’s been almost two decades since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oslo_I_Accord" target="_blank">Oslo Agreement</a> kicked off the so-called peace process, which turned out to be more about process than about peace. And even the process itself has eventually come to a halt, as Netanyahu’s Likud and other right wing parties in Israel succeeded in convincing the Israeli public that they can manage reasonably well a perpetual state of conflict with the Palestinians at an acceptable cost,. It is a dangerous illusion (for Israel and for the world), bolstered most recently by <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FIron_Dome&ei=9B6zUJC5B_C10QXjioCwDA&usg=AFQjCNFsJWkRP-MEnJQoOVfWayH5wcH7KA&sig2=nnuLydUPgRhP5Ep4D1AfnQ" target="_blank">Iron Dome</a> hit statistics and low casualty figures from Gaza rockets. Unfortunately, this will drive most Israelis to vote for Likud and like-minded parties again in next January’s elections. So for now, one should be satisfied with a positive vote at the UN without expecting a major turnaround in the dim prospects for a peace settlement.<br />
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A final cationary note. While the Palestinians have a solid majority on their side at the GA (at least 115 out of 193), a last minute monkey wrench being sprung by Israel and its supporters should not be ruled out. Here is why. Under its <a href="http://www.un.org/en/ga/about/ropga/plenary.shtml" target="_blank">Rules of Procedures</a>, GA decisions normally require a simple majority. However, important decisions require a two thirds majority. According to Rule 83 the items considered important cover, among other things, questions of international peace and security and admission of states to full UN membership. However, Rule 85 states that the GA can decide, with a simple majority, to expand the items that should require a two thirds majority. While on the face of it this should not be a problem since the Palestinians already have a majority, the possibility that some countries who, though in favor of Palestinian membership, may at the same time support a request by Israel or the US to elevate the issue to the “important” category requiring a two thirds majority.<br />
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The Palestinians who are still lobbying the undecided countries are well advised to request supportive countries to also commit not to vote in favor of raising the majority requirement to two thirds, i.e. to 129 of the 193 members, which may not be guaranteed. They need to be told that if they do it will be almost as bad as voting against.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-92130642612318347582012-11-17T05:35:00.000-08:002012-11-17T05:41:26.471-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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They Say a Picture is Worth a Thousand Words</div>
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If you are wondering how confused (and confusing) some Lebanese can be, then here is an illustration of the political battle lines in today's Lebanon...<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCu6t0prAwSnlJTuV3UWFfYP0XXhba5d0hbecfSpKXduL_pfhypYB19Y4mUDvalFor4kqON3-9lhSGbxKZvW4-5Hlfh2bBFjxfgDkyGO6oD6-It1I7FqrvfTfRSZHTStnHwdQRbWKaUUTK/s1600/hiz.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" rea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhCu6t0prAwSnlJTuV3UWFfYP0XXhba5d0hbecfSpKXduL_pfhypYB19Y4mUDvalFor4kqON3-9lhSGbxKZvW4-5Hlfh2bBFjxfgDkyGO6oD6-It1I7FqrvfTfRSZHTStnHwdQRbWKaUUTK/s200/hiz.jpg" width="162" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2obwSFku9EVZ9XmqTHfAnMQJ0b6FUh8-VRizaDgRYxXpYBpBkK1cUYOGoE6fkJXObSE_yGtjGBIEkiBY3gJ3qMdTLq0lZrmd_SRCYYQ6-5NUij136XduaCPFfnlon9-CCHLRDGFmAn7P3/s1600/Al-Qaeda-in-Lebanon.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="152" rea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2obwSFku9EVZ9XmqTHfAnMQJ0b6FUh8-VRizaDgRYxXpYBpBkK1cUYOGoE6fkJXObSE_yGtjGBIEkiBY3gJ3qMdTLq0lZrmd_SRCYYQ6-5NUij136XduaCPFfnlon9-CCHLRDGFmAn7P3/s200/Al-Qaeda-in-Lebanon.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-7975096484415312282012-11-17T03:12:00.000-08:002012-11-17T06:28:29.441-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqx7BAEw6jmmoU79sJACUhCf-Be3JETGiioEIok9CQ6575kCJNKkaPhXFkguFMNNxSdycVL_i3b9oYD53U3IcnqFVXZcyE9V8H8LdvKove_ENdq5e8mg2DV5cmCZtkFTgfpvoLSXBrmV_c/s1600/lawsuit-cash-advance-gavel-money.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="149" rea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqx7BAEw6jmmoU79sJACUhCf-Be3JETGiioEIok9CQ6575kCJNKkaPhXFkguFMNNxSdycVL_i3b9oYD53U3IcnqFVXZcyE9V8H8LdvKove_ENdq5e8mg2DV5cmCZtkFTgfpvoLSXBrmV_c/s200/lawsuit-cash-advance-gavel-money.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
And the New York State Supreme Court ruling is….</h2>
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On August 4 this blog pointed to an interesting case before the New York State Supreme Court. Justice Ellen Coin who had been assigned the case has now ruled against the plaintiff (Mr. Adnan Abu-Ayash of the now defunct Al-Madina Bank) and in favor of the defendants (eight major international banks with branches in New York).<br />
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Her ruling means that the international banks in question will not be forced to dig into their worldwide records and archives to provide information and documents relating to the financial transactions of Ms. Rana Qleilat, whose whereabouts are currently unknown. <br />
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Given the generalized nature of the Supreme Court ruling, all international banks with branches in the state of New York can now breathe a sigh of relief. And so can many who dreaded the nightmare of the murky Madina Bank world being pried open. But many more will be disappointed for the very same reason.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-30747105472415065852012-11-11T09:01:00.001-08:002012-11-14T17:12:20.867-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUS8OLKWyuoHyU5JIaWEofbEy9SpZgp6yk-5rII4UbTvsVzY6VqWLVHJIm6La40OglWBSsnumj7l7IqhG_xOEee425zj3st80kMakYHRgQXqyONDR9-chKlJvISFotnwahL7kOsb_IIJAI/s1600/3.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" rea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUS8OLKWyuoHyU5JIaWEofbEy9SpZgp6yk-5rII4UbTvsVzY6VqWLVHJIm6La40OglWBSsnumj7l7IqhG_xOEee425zj3st80kMakYHRgQXqyONDR9-chKlJvISFotnwahL7kOsb_IIJAI/s200/3.JPG" width="200" /></a></div>
<h2 style="text-align: center;">
Lebanon’s Golden Triangle</h2>
A few days ago <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FWalid_Jumblatt&ei=bnGhUJvfDofQ4QSCx4CYCw&usg=AFQjCNHbBkG9snUOvh6I1jHhI69W5lhseQ&sig2=M7LeeN_TvV-sAGy858i37g" target="_blank">Mr. Walid Junblat</a> and Mr. <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FNawwaf_Moussawi&ei=o3GhUKvXBaOk4gSr-IHIBw&usg=AFQjCNE6_6JrqAe9S0JeXezu3nZhID-FXg&sig2=MKH3Lfgar_pZ-_d2oZwOUA" target="_blank">Nawwaf Moussawi</a> made separate statements regarding the issue of Hizbollah’s idependent armed militia, a.k.a the Islamic Resistance. Both statements are quite remarkable and deserve a comment.<br />
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Mr. Junblat, sounding a bit exacerbated with March 14’s insistence that Hizbollah’s weapons come under state authority, was basically giving March 14 a piece of advice. Namely that Hizbollah will give up its military autonomy only if constitutional changes are made in return (presumably to give the Party of God’s constituency a bigger share of the Lebanese sectarian pie). So March 14 should stop raising the issue of weapons because the available tradeoff will not be to their liking. At least that’s how Mr. Junblat’s statement was understood.<br />
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There are two problems with this idea. First, if Hizbollah is indeed willing to exchange its weapons in return for sectarian gains then the implied message to other Lebanese communities is a truly terrible one. “Go ahead and form a militia and use it to negotiate a better power sharing deal with other Lebanese.” That would be a terribly dangerous message at a time when sectarian tensions are reaching unprecedented levels and weapons are available everywhere. <br />
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The other problem is that Mr. Junblat’s tradeoff, bad as it may be, is not even offered by Hizbollah.<br />
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Mr. Nawwaf Moussawi’s statement was actually a warning of a different kind . What he said was that Hizbollah’ military independence was part of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taif_Agreement" target="_blank">Taef constitution</a> that ended the 1975-1990 civil war and, as such, is not up for discussion; to question that is to question the deal that ended of the civil war. Now that’s quite a threat.<br />
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There are also two problems with Mr. Moussawi’s statement. First, it is actually wrong, factually and logically. The Taef agreement and constitution never granted Hizbollah the right to maintain a separate army outside the authority of the state. No constitution could do that anyway. You cannot be a unified sovereign state with multiple armed authorities or militias. Mr. Moussawi’s claim is both imcorrect and illogical. <br />
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Secondly, if Mr. Moussawi is expressing his party’s view then he is vindicating those in March 14 who think it is futile t continue with the charade of the national dialogue committee trying to address the very issue of Hizbollah’s arms. President Suleiman should take note of that.<br />
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But the matter is a lot more serious than scoring points. For years now we have warned that Hizbollah’s insistence on maintaining military autonomy within Lebanon and astrategic alliances outside Lebanon carry grave dangers; for the country’s security, for state authority , and even for Lebanon’s unity.<br />
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Hizbollah and its supporters use the catchy slogan of the so-called “golden triangle” (i.e. the army, the people and the resistance) as a basis for keeping an independent militia. The truth is that this independent militia amy eventually threaten the unity of the very country they claim they are trying to defend. And through the absurd triangle of army, people and resistance, the Lebanese people may one day witness the unravelling of their country's truly golden triangle of (Shiite) South, (Sunni) North and (Christian)Middle. <br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-72616582222008622092012-11-10T10:59:00.002-08:002012-11-12T14:30:54.008-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><strong><span style="font-size: large;">A Stalemate of Second-Bests</span></strong></span></span></div>
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As the battles continue to rage across Syria, ordinary people and TV talking heads alike speculate whether and when it will all come to an end. Some believe that the unspeakable violence the world is witnessing simply cannot continue much longer; that the international community will also realize the dangers of a protracted armed conflict in such a sensitive spot as Syria, and will find a way to stop it. Others expect the US and other western and regional allies to step up their assistance to the <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FFree_Syrian_Army&ei=UXihUMmmPOed0AXy-YDwCA&usg=AFQjCNFUyJIMTLnr04dHjH0x5HqfWRSFGw&sig2=TRNqjqDWfytD-_R17jI15w" target="_blank">FSA </a>and enable the revolution to defeat Assad’s viscious military machine. Perhaps. <br />
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But the possibility of a drawn out armed conflict in Syria is also possible, even likely. Here is why.<br />
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Iran realizes that Bashar Alassad has no chance of quelling the revolution and restoring complete control over Syria. That would have been the first best scenario for Iran (and Russia). But that is unachievable any more. So Assad's allies are now seeking their second best option. And their second best option is to prevent the other side from winning, which is a more feasible objective.<br />
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On their part, the west and <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&ved=0CEQQFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FCooperation_Council_for_the_Arab_States_of_the_Gulf&ei=f3ihULqjOomI0AXu44CoDQ&usg=AFQjCNE6_nxoiPELp2yRxdXJOFuVGHnJcQ&sig2=EkC6UByiEZoEqMGu-pkROQ" target="_blank">GCC</a> do not seem to be ready to bear the cost or risk entailed in direct or more forceful intervention in order to achieve a quick and complete victory of the rebels against Assad. Instead they are settling for the second best, which is to maintain sufficient support to the rebels to prevent Assad from winning. That is also a more feasible objective as well.<br />
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Conclusion? The external outside forces supporting the two sides may have fallen into a trap of reciprocal and mutually reinforcing second-best objectives. In the long run, this will not save the Assad regime; but it means many more Syrian lives are likely to be lost before it’s all over.<br />
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-5536625567062132172012-11-09T07:48:00.003-08:002012-11-25T23:30:31.607-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPxHttBJrQk&feature=player_embedded#t=0s" target="_blank"><img border="0" height="149" rea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMlv-qB03XYpqygwWaPvHzH7UMxqdIgGC4laJEf2TP_MCovPE83BkFUbhre6c74GBKQ6tSaomj3yO4ZeAsviuFAhhC24WjQAOzTvkLjVjuTUhYZSTNPTzdaanN8Lgsjnyz0C_sPZy5bJwD/s200/kalam.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPxHttBJrQk&feature=player_embedded#t=0s" target="_blank">Click Here to Watch TV Interview (in Arabic) Kalam Beirut Nov. 7, 2012</a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-3585114674194459292012-10-28T09:56:00.002-07:002012-11-12T14:38:34.750-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-l9oozVciGHDLdWbemBJguKMZ3pnz_4MSqGexVfuYS-ok6BMM1rkHL_qyfothA-zucZJDw9MWrk9TUGNb9KSXQptVdmWPcM9DbgQA1tcX0s3MLmNsjVlmLwm3GKwZ4NyB_eCPOOcgkt31/s1600/mikati-def-3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="133" oea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-l9oozVciGHDLdWbemBJguKMZ3pnz_4MSqGexVfuYS-ok6BMM1rkHL_qyfothA-zucZJDw9MWrk9TUGNb9KSXQptVdmWPcM9DbgQA1tcX0s3MLmNsjVlmLwm3GKwZ4NyB_eCPOOcgkt31/s200/mikati-def-3.jpg" width="200" /></a></div>
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<strong><span style="font-size: large;">Mr. Mikati’s Three Major Mistakes</span></strong> </div>
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It is probably too early to write Mr. <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FNajib_Mikati&ei=WHqhUPWXD-TF0QWLy4HIAQ&usg=AFQjCNG53SwQ6C7kGW_SXnKfAIzZo-9GYQ&sig2=TbZuaRaLqhVboKtFu8IDDA" target="_blank">Najib Mikati’s</a> political obituary. It may even be too early to write the obituary of his current government. But it is not early to point to three major negatives on Mr. Mikati’s performance evaluation ledger since he took over as Prime Minister a little less than two years ago.</div>
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The first is accepting to serve as Prime Minister to begin with. This was a terrible decision on Mr. Mikati’s part precisely for the reason he said he accepted the job, namely to avoid <em><a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CDwQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FFitna_(word)&ei=z3ihUJ-8G-TH0QWsioHoAg&usg=AFQjCNGasKD5zXfKgHml7XuKjOqGiHa5-A&sig2=dgT1sYcqSvVfVoSq9OLbQQ" target="_blank">fitna</a></em>. Basically, to save us and the country from the wrath of Hizbollah and its heavily armed militia. <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FWalid_Jumblatt&ei=E3qhUPOUHOy10QWmqoGADg&usg=AFQjCNHbBkG9snUOvh6I1jHhI69W5lhseQ&sig2=hkm2fil-YMDiznlrWYd_Mg" target="_blank">Walid Junblat</a> joined Mr. Mikati in this about-face for the same reason. Avoiding Hizbollah's threat of <em>fitna.</em> The implication of Mr. Mikati’s decision to accept the offer in those circumstances was clear. If you have an armed militia you can use it to achieve political goals by threatening the country with <em>fitna.</em> If you (Sunnis, Maronites or Druze) don’t have a militia then maybe it is time to start one. That was the implied message. A terrible one.</div>
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The second major negative item on Mr. Mikati’s performance card was not to raise much fuss about Hizbollah’s unabashed protection of party members indicted by the Special Tribunal for their role in the assassination of the late <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FRafic_Hariri&ei=MnqhUNfuMKe30QXrnoGQCw&usg=AFQjCNFBZaqNgcFHUGCWJoun3wJWr9dSbw&sig2=DBeWyLhEV1dS-m-OrqEkuQ" target="_blank">Rafic Hariri</a>, as well as a suspect in the attempted assassination of former Minister <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CDIQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FBoutros_Harb&ei=6XmhUJiFIKPG0QXugoD4Cg&usg=AFQjCNEd-aSxXWQ4Fn94t-EhIRSFKBskPA&sig2=raptm7u2MAbD0oqA-SvGkw" target="_blank">Butros Harb</a>, a prominent <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CD0QFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FMarch_14_alliance&ei=eHmhUOyMLaLU0QW594GADw&usg=AFQjCNEwVkIB1-f8lSIR9JyWyxx8yS93Qg&sig2=ucCvI2buhei6vZyBzFNJnQ" target="_blank">March 14</a> figure. The implied message was also quite clear. if you are planning an assassination, you don’t need to worry about being discovered or prosecuted, provided you have a powerful militia to give you impunity.</div>
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His third major mistake was to basically do nothing in response to the blatant act of aggression against Lebanon by the Syrian regime. This was the so-called Mamlouk-Smaha conspiracy to blow up public figures and gathering in North Lebanon, which was uncovered by the late <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=7&cad=rja&ved=0CFUQFjAG&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FWissam_al-Hassan&ei=OnmhUKSWEuHF0QWSzoCgDw&usg=AFQjCNE_hI8DJewxRQfmJP9shWHiTrZSVw&sig2=IoYrcquSFORrFW9PgSkp2Q" target="_blank">General El-hassan</a> a few months ago. Mr. Mikati did not even complain to the <a href="http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&ved=0CC0QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fen.wikipedia.org%2Fwiki%2FArab_League&ei=oXmhUMzsNOnK0QW25YD4Bg&usg=AFQjCNHkag5PDWKLuRYarLNO1QJc4Pms2A&sig2=HxMsCX6lrT_scMp8kaeWKg" target="_blank">Arab League</a> or to United nations or take any diplomatic action, which would have sent a message that an attack on Lebanon by the Syrian regime will not be costless – at least politically and legally. The decision to ignore March 14’s call for appropriate diplomatic steps and to opt instead for sheepish expressions of disapproval fell far short of the needed deterrence against future acts of aggression. The excuse of waiting for the judicial process was an uncovincing one. Sovereign states do not wait for judges to make policy in such cases. The available evidence was sufficient to take action.</div>
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There is no doubt that Mr. Mikati can point to other things in his favor. He probably would also argue that doing otherwise than what he did would have been overruled by his own cabinet. Maybe so. But that would mean that his government was not suited to protect the nation in these dangerous times. That’s all the more reason for him to bring his own government down without much delay. Better late than never.</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5504297516146158180.post-20300500197131421792012-10-28T03:31:00.000-07:002012-11-25T23:39:46.509-08:00<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Interview on LBC- Nharkom Saeed (Arabic) October 27, 2012</div>
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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_YAEkFH9MU&feature=player_embedded#t=3s" target="_blank"><img border="0" oea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwMa4NCGmoi2tK1fLWdzIBtzhjDBkh9Eim2Q_eJlnQ-NQK7AEy8dbjIdjxHOgFrcu1zkUdH0mfsQT_LnyWPDRB09rEMavejHAZ0ywDhyphenhyphenDnB4MJv3Rwk2_NFMZQjWgj2sVWXgdhEZfLwGBh/s1600/untitled.bmp" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_YAEkFH9MU&feature=player_embedded#t=3s" target="_blank">Click this link to watch</a></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00440225054579699173noreply@blogger.com0