Lebanon’s Golden Triangle

A few days ago Mr. Walid Junblat and Mr. Nawwaf Moussawi made separate statements regarding the issue of Hizbollah’s idependent armed militia, a.k.a the Islamic Resistance. Both statements are quite remarkable and deserve a  comment.

A Stalemate of Second-Bests

As the battles continue to rage across Syria, ordinary people and TV talking heads alike speculate whether and when it will all come to an end. Some believe that the unspeakable violence the world is witnessing simply cannot continue much longer; that the international community will also realize the dangers of a protracted armed conflict in such a sensitive spot as Syria, and will find a way to stop it. Others expect the US and other western and regional allies to step up their assistance to the FSA and enable the revolution to defeat Assad’s viscious military machine. Perhaps.


But the possibility of a drawn out armed conflict in Syria is also possible, even likely. Here is why.

Click Here to Watch TV Interview (in Arabic) Kalam Beirut Nov. 7, 2012

Mr. Mikati’s Three Major Mistakes

It is probably too early to write Mr. Najib Mikati’s political obituary. It may even be too early to write the obituary of his current government. But it is not early to point to three major negatives on Mr. Mikati’s performance evaluation ledger since he took over as Prime Minister a little less than two years ago.

Interview on LBC- Nharkom Saeed (Arabic) October 27, 2012

Click this link to watch

Any Feeling of sympathy?

Frankly, it is difficult to feel any sympathy toward Lebanon’s foreign minister, Mr. Adnan Mansour. Following Mr. Nasrallah’s drone speech, he was quick to announce, among other things, that Lebanon was ready to bear the consequences of Hizbollah’s launching of an Iranian drone over Israel’s nuclear facilities and offshore gas platforms.

Much more than a jailbreak......

A jailbreak story is normally newsworthy but not totally unusual. It can happen anywhere, and it does. But what made the Roumieh story particularly dramatic was the appalling condition of the prison and its administration (or rather the lack of it), which became glaringly clear as the story unfolded. People could not believe that government authorities had failed to reinstall the prison doors that had been destroyed during last year's riot, or that inmates had been allowed to do the roll calls themselves instead of prison officers. That was the bigger story behind the jailbreak story.

But in reality there is yet another story behind the story behind the story that should alarm us all.

                   Interview on LBC- Nharkom Saeed (Arabic) October 14, 2012

click this link to watch

To Shield Lebanon or to Use it as a Shield…

I was pleased, in a way, to hear what Mr. Nasrallah had to say in his prime time television appearance two days ago. Not that I agreed with his him on much of anything. But in my view he has served everyone well by blowing away the illusions and fog surrounding the lines of demarcation on crucial issues that divide Lebanon today.



 

The Baabda Declaration Revisited

It is not an easy job to be president of Lebanon. These days, this is an understatement. The President undoubtedly recognizes the threat to Lebanon posed by a violent revolution in Syria, with increasingly sectarian overtones. He must also be worried about the threat to Lebanon from a possible escalation in the conflict between Iran and its enemies; enemies who view Hizbollah as an integral part of Iran’s power and military strategy.

Click this Link to Listen to Radio Interview (in Arabic) on Voix du Liban   

                Recorded Octorber 6, 2012

The FPM, Election Law and Christian Representation

I hesitate before I say anything regarding the election law in Lebanon. Most people are probably sick and tired of the endless television debates and arguments over this issue. Besides, if you are concerned that the preoccupation with the election law is diverting attention away from other more urgent national issues (as I am), then you would hesitate even more before you enter the fray. But I will overcome this hesitation and make one observation about Christian representation under the alternative proposals.

Radio Orient Interview (in Arabic)  September 30, 2012 

with Wardeh: Elmajalis Bil-Amanat

 Press Release: Ambassador Chatah’s visit to the U.S

Ambassador Mohamad Chatah, senior foreign policy advisor to former Prime Minister Saad Hariri concluded a week long visit to Washington at the invitation of the Aspen Institute where he participated in a panel discussion on Lebanese banking. He also met with US officials in the White House and the State Department concerning the situation in Lebanon and the region and gave a talk at the Wilson Center to a large group of Middle East experts and US officials.

This is a video of a panel`discussion held in Washington DC at the Aspen Institute on September 19, 2012. The panel included U.S. Assistant Secretay of the Treasury Dan Glazer and was moderated by Jay Solomon of the Wall Street Journal. The topic was:

Banking on Credibility: Lebanon’s Financial Sector Amidst Sanctions and Regional Instability

video link:
http://www.aspeninstitute.org/video/banking-credibility-lebanon-s-financial-sector-amidst-sanctions-regional-instability

A Pothole Down the Road

They say a joke is sometimes more eloquent than a thesis. I first heard this one back when Fouad Siniora was still Prime Minister. It goes something like this:

Not Everyone Wants to Shield Lebanon

The Syrian regime is bound to lose its battle for survival. But few are ready to predict when that is going to happen. In the meantime, the risk of a serious spill-over into Lebanon will continue to mount. Loud accusations are voiced by both sides of the Syrian divide in Lebanon concerning weapons and fighters moving across the border. The recently uncovered Syrian plot to send large amounts of explosives into Lebanon to kill political leaders and target popular gatherings in the Akkar region is indicative of the desparate attitude currently prevailing in Damascus.

Lebanon and the NAM Summit 

Iran plans to host a summit meeting for the so-called Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) later this month. President Michel Suleiman is on the list of invitees. Talk of the town is that he will attend. But should he?

For one thing, the idea of being non-aligned with  either the Soviet-led East or the U.S.-led West is a cold war  idea whose time has come and gone. It has little relevance to today’s world. But that’s not a strong reason why President Suleiman should not go. In fact, presidents do make many foreign visits and attend many events which are of little added value. As long as no harm is done one normally lets such things pass without making a fuss about them.

On the Brink Again

It was Bismarck who once quipped that a fool learns from his own mistakes but a wise man learns from the mistakes of others. But what would you call those who learn from neither? Well, I am afraid the way things seem to be heading here, you might as well call them Lebanese.

Maybe Time for Some Lebanese Defections 

It’s a big story. It’s a big story when a prominent Lebanese politician is apprehended by Lebanese police; a big story when that politician is one of the closest advisors to the president ( the president of Syria, that is), and the security agency doing the apprehending is the ISF - no love lost with the Syrian regime; it’s a big story when the alleged crime apparently involves a plan to detonate deadly explosives (and in turn detonate deadly sectarian clashes) mostly in the sensitive border region of Akkar; and it’s a big story if a smoking gun confirms what many people have been warning against - the possibility that the Syrian regime in Damascus may, in its moment of desperation, try to dig deeper into its Lebanese bag of tricks and do something bad. Really bad.

The potential ramifications of this story are enormous.